Dear FSB List:
I'm working on an analysis of CFL lighting projects for the Ontario Power Authority. I have a question that I would like to pose to the group: What measurements or indicators can be used to declare a residential lighting market "transformed?" We can keep running CFL campaigns, but when do we stop? Will there ever be enough momentum to pull back the effort and let the market finish the transformation? Will this happen without regulation or taxation on old inefficient technology? I'm very interested in talking to anyone who would like to explore these issues. If the goal of CFL social marketing is market transformation, it will be important to know when to declare victory. (It seems, for instance, that the market for seasonal LED lights does not require the kind of marketing that the residential CFL market does).
Also, if anyone is involved in an existing CFL campaign, or knows where I could find reports and analysis of past campaigns, please get in touch.
Cheers from Ottawa,
Stuart
613 260-7362
One Change / Project Porchlight
onechange.org
When is a Market "Transformed"?
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A quantitative point where a market is seen to be transformed is when 13% of the target market shifts to adopt the new idea or improvement, see Everett Rogers work "Diffusion on Innovations." This is the critical mass number from physics and others including John Naisbitt of Megatrends has commented on this as well, 20 years ago. We have found a triangulation strategy/process works well.
L
Stuart from Ottawa posed an interesting question, when can one declare a program to 'transform' a populations purchasing choice for Compact Fluorescent Lamps a success? In posing that question he referred to the seasonal LED campaign and by implication declaring it a success, which I believe it is based on my observation of sales in the local market. This happened over three years. Strikes me that if you assume seasonal LED effort did "transform" then looking at how and why would be useful. My sense is the seasonal LED has several things going for it, these are just opinions. The light looked different and this was and advantage as the unique light became a badge of honor a signal that you cared, knew enough etc. Second there was no 'bulb failure' pain/problem. Third your/my conscious was eased given the low power consumption, still use a timer mind you but--. Now on the other side there is the issue of built in obsolescence. Look at the bicycle lighting market, transformed to LED based on functionality and practicality (performance).
Some comments.
Forrest
Great question, I don't have a good answer but here are some sources that are exploring the question for energy efficiency in buildings -
Blumstein, C., S. Goldstone, et al. (2000). "A theory-based approach to market transformation." Energy Policy 28: 137-144.
Lutzenhiser, L. and K. B. Janda (1999). Residential New Construction: Market Transformation Research Needs. Davis, CA, California Insitute for Energy Efficiency: 20.
Kif Scheuer
Doctoral Candidate
School of Natural Resources and Environment
University of Michigan