The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic.
Carroll, J. S. (1978). The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic.. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 14, 1, 88-96.
Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event
makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal
connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the
availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by
an event becoming easier to imagine. Two experiments were designed to
demonstrate this principle. In Exp I, 97 undergraduates asked to imagine
Jimmy Carter winning the presidential election (prior to the election)
predicted that he was more likely to win than Ss asked to imagine Gerald
Ford winning. In Exp II, 93 undergraduates asked to imagine a good
college football season for the previous championship team were more
likely to predict a major bowl bid than Ss asked to imagine a bad
season, although the effect did not appear in predictions of the season
record. In both studies, Ss who were also asked to explain the imaginary
event were no different from Ss who only imagined. Several other
attributional distortions are interpreted in terms of the availability
heuristic. (19 ref)