Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 4157, 1124-1131.
Describes 3 heuristics employed to assess probabilities and to predict values: (a) representativeness, (b) availability of instances, and (c) adjustment from an anchor. Biases to which these heuristics lead are enumerated, and the implied and theoretical implications are discussed. It is concluded that a better understanding of these heuristics and their resulting biases could improve judgments and decisions in situations of uncertainty.
